China's Democratic Future: How It Will Happen and Where It Will Lead

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März 2004



The end of communist rule in China will be one of the most momentous events of the twenty-first century, sounding the death knell for the Marxist-Leninist experiment and changing the lives of a fifth of humanity. This book provides a likely blow-by-blow account of how the Chinese Communist Party will be removed from power and how a new democracy will be born.
In more than half a century of rule, the Chinese Communist Party has turned a poor and benighted China into a moderately well-off and increasingly influential nation. Yet the Party has failed to keep pace with change since stepping aside from daily life in the late-1970s. After nearly a hundred years of frustrating attempts to create a workable political system following the overthrow of the last dynasty, the prospects for democracy in China are better than ever, according to Bruce Gilley.
Gilley predicts an elite-led transformation rather than a popular-led overthrow. He profiles the key actors and looks at the response of excluded elites, such as the military, as well as interested parties such as Taiwan and Tibet. He explains how democracy in China will be very "Chinese," even as it will also embody fundamental universal liberal features. He deals with competing interests -- regional, sectoral, and class -- of China's economy and society under democracy, addressing the pressing concerns of world business. Finally he considers the implications for Asia as well as for the United States.


IntroductionPart 1: CrisisDemocracy and ChinaDemocracy's SpreadThe Struggle for Democracy ( China's Democratic PotentialBroken PromisesThe Republican FailureMao's ChinaPost-Mao ReformsThe Last Days of DictatorshipThe Torment of CCP RuleThe PRC SystemA Metaphor for TransitionState and SocietySustaining Economic GrowthThe Social MalaiseA Troubled DiplomacyPolitical DysfunctionResources for ChangeTocqueville's ParadoxThe Privatization of Economic LifeNew IdeasNew SocietiesDemocratic Diplomacy and US PolicyBorder Effects and Global Civil SocietyPolitical DecompressionPart II: TransitionBreakdown and MobilizationPredicting ChangeGradual Democracy?Metastatic CrisisPopular MobilizationViolenceLast DitchismCollapse?The Eve of TransitionDemocratic BreakthroughExtrication or Overthrow?The Heroes of RetreatThe PactEnding the PRCThe ImmediateThe Interim RegimeSudden PoliticizationInternational ReactionPart III: ConsolidationThe Political ChallengeWill Democracy Fail?Legacies and ChoicesNew InstitutionsFederalismSecessionThe First ElectionRights and InterestsRights: Threats and SafeguardsTowards ConsolidationPolitical LifeLocal Politics and Hong KongRefurbishing Economic and Social LifeThe Struggle for InterestsGrowth and DevelopmentSocial WelfareRegional InterestsA Free SocietyDealing With HistoryA Changed International RoleDemocratic PeaceTransitional DiplomacyRelations With the U.S.Relations with AsiaTaiwan, Tibet and XinjiangConclusionReferences


Bruce Gilley


"An ambitious book." -- Josephe Cheng, Journal of Chinese Political Science
EAN: 9780231130844
ISBN: 0231130848
Untertitel: Empfohlen ab 22 Jahre. New. Sprache: Englisch.
Erscheinungsdatum: März 2004
Seitenanzahl: 320 Seiten
Format: gebunden
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